European Airport Traffic Forecast Scenarios: May 2024 update
-3.2% Full Year 2024 passenger traffic (vs. 2019)
- Passenger traffic in 2024 will surpass 2019 levels by +3.2%. This is a significant improvement compared to the October 2023 forecast (+1.4%).
- The upward change in projection can be attributed to the strength of traffic during the past two quarters; changed consumer behaviour with larger Visiting Friends & Relatives (VFR) demand despite increased air fares (July 2024: +34% vs 2019), and continued dynamic capacity expansion of Ultra Low Cost Carriers & ramping up by Full Service Carriers
- However, country-level performance remains fragmented, with some countries already exceeding 2019 pre-Covid forecasts and others far behind
Frictions on travel growth - positive but slowing momentum
- Multiple challenges impact downside case of FY Passenger Traffic 2024 (+1.4%) - continued economic concerns, geopolitical risks, social unrest (strikes) as well as supply pressures from aircraft delivery delays & spare parts challenges
- Traffic growth expected to slow from just below 10% 2024 vs 2023 to around 8% year-on-year in 2025
- Traffic this year to fall -14.2% below the projected traffic for 2024 pre-Covid: driving significant remaining financial challenges for airports
For more information, download the fleshed out forecasting available below: