Airport Traffic Forecast 2023 - Revised 2023-2027 Outlook

-4.5% Full Year 2023 passenger traffic (vs. 2019)

  • There has been a significant improvement in the latest forecast compared to the one from December 2022, which had predicted -9%

  • The improvement demonstrates the strong demand for air transport despite the challenges: 
    - Sustained inflationary pressures across the economy
    - Higher air fares: +36% for intra-European routes (Oct 2023 vs. 2019)
    - Geopolitical tensions & impact of war in Ukraine

  • Beyond this average, performance variations across national / individual airport markets to remain – due to factors including predominantly leisure & VFR driven demand, selective Ultra-LCCs capacity expansion & relative retrenchment of FSCs, aviation taxes and the war in Ukraine

 

2024 for full recovery to 2019 annual levels (upgraded)

  • FY 2024 at +1.4% and FY 2027 at +9.2% - compared to previous forecast (Dec 2022) at respectively -2% and +9%

  • Performance gaps amongst airport market segments to narrow in 2024 with Hubs & larger airports seeing demand recovery from Asia (China) accelerating - although regional & smaller will keep outperforming

  • Downside traffic risks remain high - including economic slowdown in Europe, continued inflation & higher oil prices, availability of aircraft & spare parts and geopolitics

 

 

Traffic 1

 

 

2023 & 2024 QUARTERLYTraffic 2

 

 

For more information, download the fleshed out forecasting available below. 

 

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