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European Airport Traffic Forecast Scenarios: April 2025 update

2025 & Beyond: Slower/"Normalised" Growth Ahead

  • The post-pandemic rebound is fading, with growth dropping from +7.7% in 2024 vs. 2023 to +3.6% in 2025 (vs. 2024) before slowing further at +3.2% in 2028 (vs. 2027).

  • This reflects increased macro-economic uncertainty and continued inflationary pressures, as well as capacity constraints and growing market maturity. The impact of EU/UK climate policy will remain marginal until 2028 but is set to kick in afterwards.

  • As a result, when compared to pre-pandemic (2019) levels, passenger volume is set to stand at +3.9% in 2025 and +7.9% in 2026.

Traffic still below pre-COVID projections

  • Despite reaching 2019 levels in 2024, traffic remains well below original pre-pandemic forecasts.

  • Airports continue to face financial strain as long-term investments were based on higher expected volumes.

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    Year on Year Growth
    Forecast 2

     

    Relative to 2019 level 

    Forecast 1

     

    For more information, download the fleshed-out forecasting available below: